from: http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0411politics11.html

Bush in gear to quickly shift from war to re-election mode
Ron Fournier
Associated Press
Apr. 11, 2003 12:00 AM

WASHINGTON - When war ends in Iraq, President Bush will quickly shift focus to his 2004 re-election campaign and the issue that kept his father from winning a second term: a weak economy. The money, message and much of Bush's political machine are already in place.

After weeks of planning, the White House hopes to convert postwar political momentum into successes for Bush's domestic agenda and ammunition for re-election.

The elder Bush failed to capitalize on his popularity after Operation Desert Storm in 1991, a mistake no Republicans want to see again.

"I believe the president will emerge from the war with enhanced ability to stimulate the economy," said House Majority Whip Roy Blunt, R-Mo., a close ally of the White House.

"And that's not only the right thing to do but, obviously, it's the element that has the most potential to have an impact between now and 2004," Blunt said.

Democrats, on the other hand, are looking forward to a shift from war to relative peace as a chance to erode Bush's high job approval ratings.

"Clearly, this president's record on domestic issues will be a major factor in the 2004 election," Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe said.

Democrats point to the 2 million jobs lost since Bush took office, as well as a long drop in the Dow Jones industrial average. Republicans predict the economy will start motoring as soon as the shooting stops. And if that doesn't work, they want Bush to get credit for trying.

While the elder Bush proposed a modest postwar domestic agenda, this Bush is talking big, starting with a $725 billion package of tax cuts.

In a rare retreat, the White House has suggested it would accept less from Congress than Bush proposed, but that may be a dodge. Some advisers predict that the afterglow of war will boost Bush's popularity and help him squeeze concessions from lawmakers.

Some of his efforts are cosmetic.

Hoping to avoid the hands-off criticism that hurt his father, Bush stages frequent economic events at the White House and across the country. He met with supportive business leaders Thursday, then dispatched them to the front lawn to discuss his economic plan with reporters.

"What the Democrats are missing in this whole thing is this president is great at getting on message and staying on message and the entire White House is perfectly happy with following the script," GOP strategist Rich Galen said.

Bush is also proposing a $400 billion overhaul of Medicare, a program once thought politically untouchable for Republicans.

In outlining his agenda nearly three months ago, Bush also promised new money for research into fuel-efficient cars, a sign that he would not cede environmental issues to Democrats.

The economy may dominate, but the war on terrorism will remain a significant issue in Bush's campaign.

"All he's got to do is remind voters that this is a dangerous age and that Democrats, at best, have a lukewarm support for the military," GOP pollster Whit Ayres said.

Though fighting could end soon, White House officials said there is no guarantee that Bush would declare the war over. It could take months to secure Iraq, said aides who pointed out that Bush has never called an end to the Afghanistan war.